How good are you as an auto driver compared to others? If you say better than average, you give the same answer as about 80% of people. If we ask university roommates how well they will be doing in five years and how well their roommate will be doing in five years, the predictions about themselves are far rosier than predictions about the roommate. These research findings show that people tend to over-rate themselves. Why do they do that? It could be that evolution selected individuals who are overconfident. Perhaps guys who feel lucky tend to get lucky. Perhaps individuals who take chances based on overconfidence tend to survive and reproduce more than their more realistic friends — maybe because they keep trying. Self-efficacy (the thought that I can do this) is a concept associated with success in many studies. Are rich and successful individuals very confident? Their success might help produce confidence, but their confidence could help produce success.

Is there any downside to being overconfident? Indeed! Overconfidence likely plays a role in (1) gambling addiction, (2) engaging in physically dangerous activities like BASE jumping and unsafe sex (these ought never be done at the same time!), and (3) outrage at judgments of others (e.g., supervisor ratings, journal reviewer comments).

So what is a person to do? Try this: Maintain confidence (you can do things!) but be careful and be aware that you may be biased toward judging yourself more highly than others do.

What other risks are there for being overconfident?  For being under-confident? What ways have you found  to keep your confidence level just right?

John Malouff, PhD, JD, Assoc Prof of Psychology