Coping with Risk: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

By

J. Brian Hardaker

Emeritus Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics, UNE

Presented on Thursday, 11 September from 12.30 – 2 pm in LT2, EBL Building.

A light lunch will be served from 12 noon outside LT2.

The title of Brian’s presentation comes from the 1966 cowboy film The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, starring Clint Eastwood. It became something of a classic. The film’s title has entered the English language, the respective phrases referring to upsides, downsides and the parts that could, or should, be done better, but are not. Brian will use these three categories in his seminar about coping with risk.

In the Seminar, Brian will first talk about the nature of risk, drawing attention to some common misconceptions. He will then focus on rationalising risky choice and will contrast methods based on the subjective expected utility hypothesis with some common cognitive failures that afflict people trying to cope with risk. This discussion will cover some ‘ugly’ features of the ways too much risk work has been done, contrasting these failures with opportunities to be ‘good’. He will challenge ‘Young Turks’ in the audience to take on the job of overthrowing the old and the ugly and replacing it with something new and beautiful.

Please note that, although the seminar includes a shoot-out, no guns are allowed on the premises.

Brian Hardaker

Brian Hardaker started his career in agricultural economics working at the Universities of London and Cambridge, UK, before coming to UNE in 1967 as a lecturer in the then Department of Farm Management, later merged with Agricultural Economics. Brian retired from UNE in 1995 having reached the rank of Professor (Personal Chair). Subsequently he was awarded the status of Emeritus Professor at UNE.

After he arrived at UNE he joined a group of young and enthusiastic scholars, led by the late John Dillon, who became interested in risk in agriculture. Brian was a co-author with Jock Anderson and John Dillon of a pioneering and influential book on the topic, published in 1977, called Agricultural Decision Analysis. Subsequently, Brian has been the lead author of a book, first published in 1997, called Coping with Risk in Agriculture, which is an update of the earlier publication. The third edition of this latter book is now in press.

Since he retired, Brian has worked as a private consultant and as an Honorary Professor at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, where he worked part time for a number of years. He is currently an Associate at the Norwegian equivalent of ABARES. Brian is also a Distinguished Fellow of AARES.