Date palms are an important source of livelihood in dry areas where few other plants are able to grow. They provide a valuable source of income to small farmers, produce a fruit rich in minerals and vitamins and have many uses beyond food production. The importance of date palms is likely to increase as dry areas of the world experience the effects of climate change. In this study we describe a model identifying areas where a date palm production will be economically feasible based on climate projections for the period 2030-2100 in Iran, the largest producer in the world. The model combines information from global climate models with important factors such as soil suitability, slope, availability of water and road infrastructure, and risk of disease. Our results indicate changes in the geographical distribution of the species, with the total area suitable for cultivation increasing towards 2070, but starting to decline thereafter. Despite large areas of technical feasibility only a relatively small area of about 6,000 km² of southern Iran will be economically feasible for cultivation of date palm by 2100, unless technologies that increase yields and reduce establishment costs are developed.

Shabani, F., Cacho, O. & Kumar, L., (2016). Effects of Climate Change on Economic Feasibility of Future Date Palm Production: An Integrated Assessment in Iran, Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, DOI 10.1080/10807039.2016.1162089.