2025, Volume 28, Paper 2
ISSN: 2209-6612
Potential Economic Impacts of Climate Adaptation Research: A Case Study of the Mallee and Gippsland Regions
Don Gunasekera – Centre for Regional and Rural Futures, Deakin University
Robert Faggin – Centre for Regional and Rural Futures, Deakin University
Abstract
The potential impact of a recent climate adaptation research project undertaken as a part of the Future Drought Fund program is explored here. The research project examined the cultivation of almonds, citrus and grapes in the Mallee region in North-west Victoria, in conjunction with potatoes and pome fruit (apples and pears), in the Gippsland region. The project was undertaken in close collaboration with key stakeholders and farmer groups in these two regions. This climate adaptation research created a novel Online Decision Support Tool (based on gross margin analysis), allowing the collaborating farmers to test the yield and output outcomes of their crops under varying climate conditions. It is asserted that this Tool can therefore be used in future planning needs to better support crop management in adapting to climate change. The Tool has been developed to be open sourced, ensuring access to the Tool is not inhibited by cost or the need for a subscription, and it has strong public good characteristics which make it suitable for important innovative farm decision-making. It is important to recognise that gross margin-based tools are widely available for farmers to use at present.
It is reasonable to assume that, because of the adoption of the Tool, the projected decline in estimates of almond, citrus, grape, potato and pome fruits yields due to climate change can be reduced subject to the extent of adoption by farmers. The Tool if used could potentially assist farmers to instigate better on-farm production decision-making, including improved resource use efficiency by altering their input mix based on predicted climate change pressures. In this context, we estimate that the gross potential benefits from climate change adaptation research in selected horticultural industries could be in the range of $199 million to $398 million per year in the short to medium term. However, of these potential gross benefits what we can attribute to our Online Decision Support Tool will depend on factors such as the share of farmers already adopting adaptation measures autonomously. Hence, potentially, only that share of the farmers who do not undertake any adaptation measures at present and who would then potentially choose to use our Online Decision Support Tool could achieve some of the gross benefits estimated in our analysis. Estimating that share of the farmers who do or don’t undertake any adaptation measures at present, and also who would adopt our Online Tool, has been beyond the scope of this paper. We briefly highlight an approach to estimate adoption rates in future work.
Keywords: Climate adaptation research; Research impact; Gross margin analysis; Almond, Citrus and Grape production; Pome fruit production; Potato production; Online Decision Support Tool
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