2009, Volume 12, Paper 81

Managing Uncertainty Pragmatically in Private and Public Decision-making about Investment

Bill Malcolm

Prologue

There is no remembrance of things past, neither shall there be remembrance of things to come: Ecclesiastes

Anticipating the future today is unavoidable.

It is often thought that someone who knows what is coming is wise.

More accurately, the wise person knows that they do not know what is coming.

We can however expect that:

• The future will arrive
• The future will be a different world; they will do things differently there
• Much about the present will be present in the future
• Some important principles that work now will still work in the future
• Much of what we believe to be right now will come to be known to be wrong
• Major factors affecting future lives will be things currently unimagined

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