2025, Volume 28, Paper 11
ISSN: 2209-6612

Short Run Cycles in the Australian Beef Industry

Garry Griffith – School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Melbourne

Selwyn Heilbron – School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Melbourne; SG Heilbron Economics and Policy Consulting

Chinthani Rathnayake – School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Melbourne

Abstract

In related research using annual data, an analysis of Australian beef industry variables did not show evidence of significant regular patterns in breeding cow numbers of the same order of magnitude as the long-established, medium-term (8-12 years) United States beef cycle. Further, there was no significant relationship between cattle prices in the United States and in Australia. The only significant relationships between current and lagged values were found in the beef slaughterings series (negative autocorrelations at lags 2 and 3 (cycles of around 4 years)) and in the cattle price series (negative autocorrelations at lag 2 (cycle of 4 years)). Slaughterings and prices moved in the opposite direction. These shorter-term lags between changes in prices and numbers slaughtered were considered more likely to be caused by the transmission of volatility in world market conditions on the demand side, and by volatile environmental conditions on the supply side, than by the collective decisions of beef cattle producers on which the persistence of a medium-term cattle cycle is predicated. In this study, those same Australian beef industry data series are analysed but on a quarterly basis rather than an annual basis so as to provide a more disaggregated examination of these shorter-term cyclical patterns.

 Keywords: cattle cycles, Australia, market volatility, environmental conditions

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