2025, Volume 28, Paper 13
ISSN: 2209-6612

Short Run Beef Price Transmission from the United States to Australia

Garry Griffith – School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Melbourne

Selwyn Heilbron – School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Melbourne; SG Heilbron Economics and Policy Consulting

Chinthani Rathnayake – School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Melbourne

Abstract

Concern about meat market price transmission processes has re-emerged with the recent rapid increases then decreases in prices for cattle and lamb in Australia. Most of the concern has been about impacts on supermarket prices. However, given that the large majority of Australian beef and sheep meat production is sold in world markets, it is necessary to include in this discussion the nature of price transmission from world markets into the Australian domestic market. A causality analysis was done on the beef export value chain to the United States. All of the tests done reject any significant degree of causation in either direction between Australian farm prices for cattle and United States farm prices for cattle and wholesale or import prices for beef. Statistically, on a quarterly basis, the prices of cattle in Australia and the prices of cattle and beef in the United States are determined independently of each other. 

 Keywords: price transmission, US beef market, exports, causality

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