2025, Volume 28, Paper 12
ISSN: 2209-6612

Are There Medium-Term Cycles in the Australian Sheep Industry?

Garry Griffith – School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Melbourne

Selwyn Heilbron – School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Melbourne; SG Heilbron Economics and Policy Consulting

Chinthani Rathnayake – School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Melbourne

Abstract

In this paper, an analysis is conducted using quarterly data to investigate whether there are medium-term production and price cycles in the Australian sheep industry as evident in many cattle and pig industries around the world. In all of the series studied there were found to be significant seasonal patterns. In the lamb sector, no evidence of medium-term cyclical behaviour was found apart from cross linkages with the beef industry through prices. However, in the mutton sector, significant 2–3-year cycles were found in both prices and quantities. Therefore, there is mixed evidence about whether production and price cycles exist in the Australian sheep industry. External influences on world and Australian sheep markets (human- and animal-health related disruptions, exchange rates, trade disruptions, political instability, market access, drought and flood and the growing industrialisation of production), appear to have become increasingly significant and relevant in recent years, and have effectively outweighed any cyclical tendencies embedded in expectations processes and biological lags. More attention needs to be paid to risk management in the light of uncertainties in the future about these external influences. 

 Keywords: sheep industry, production and price cycles, autocorrelation analyses

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