2025, Volume 33, Paper 1
ISSN: 1883-5675
Is There Still a Pig Cycle in Australia?
Garry Griffith – School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville
Chinthani Rathnayake – School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville
Abstract
Previous research suggested that while there was some evidence of cyclical behaviour in pig numbers and prices in Australia, the extensive restructuring of the domestic pig industry to more large specialist units would likely dampen any cyclical activity in the future. Some 30 years after the last empirical study, another investigation was thought warranted to assess whether such cyclical activity is still evident in the Australian pig industry. Single equation time series models were applied to annual data covering the period 1970-2023. First differencing was required to achieve stationarity. Examination of autocorrelation functions in most of the series analysed indicated a significant negative correlation at a 2-year lag, suggesting a 4-year peak-to-peak cycle. This pattern was evident for numbers of sows and gilts, total numbers of pigs, total slaughterings of pigs, the real average unit value of all pigs slaughtered and the specific reported real price of baconer weight pigs. This 2-year lag was confirmed from the partial autocorrelation function where the significant association at lag 2 persisted even after accounting for any association at lag 1. There were no significant autocorrelations at any lag in the series measuring total production of pigmeat. These results all accord with previous work. The implication is that, despite the continued shift in the Australian pigmeat industry towards larger, more capital intensive and integrated production systems, there continue to be sufficient numbers of small, independent producers of lighter weight pigs who are more opportunistic and who choose to move in and out of the industry in response to price signals so as to maintain the cycle.
Keywords: pig cycle, autocorrelation analyses, Australia
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