2018, Volume 26, Paper 4
ISSN: 1883-5675

Updating and Recalibrating Equilibrium Displacement Models of the Australian Livestock Industries: Beef

 Yue Zhang, Stuart Mounter and Garry Griffith –  Centre for Agribusiness, UNE Business School, University of New England, Armidale.

This research was funded by the Rural R&D for Profit Programme of the Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, Meat and Livestock Australia, and the Australian Meat Processors Corporation.

Abstract

An existing equilibrium displacement model of the Australian beef industry was updated to enable the distribution of the total benefits from the adoption of new technology or promotion investments to be estimated across the beef value chain. Three hypothetical simulations were run to test the impact of recalibrating the model to the new initial equilibrium. The distribution of the gross benefits to the various industry sectors were found to be broadly similar to those reported in the original model. Cattle producers receive between 29 and 40 per cent of the potential gross benefits from the hypothetical investments, overseas consumers receive between 11 and 15 per cent, while domestic consumers receive between 37 and 47 per cent, depending on the scenario. Beef processors, feedlots and domestic retailers all receive much smaller shares of gross benefits, typically less than 5 per cent each. While the updated model provides a framework that reflects the current industry size and structure, the results are conditional on the specified price and quantity values, their underlying assumptions and calculations, and the parameter values used to represent industry responses to price changes.

Key words: beef, EDM, update, simulation

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