2017, Volume 25, Paper 4
ISSN: 1442-6951
Specifying and Testing an Equilibrium Displacement Model of the Coconut Market in Sri Lanka¹
Erandathie Pathiraja – Former PhD candidate, Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic. 3010, Australia; and Senior Research Officer, Coconut Research Institute, Lunuwila, Sri Lanka, 61150. Email: erandathiep@yahoo.com
Garry Griffith – Principal Fellow, Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic. 3010, Australia; and Professorial Research Fellow, UNE Business School, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia.
Robert Farquharson – Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic. 3010, Australia.
Robert Faggian – Associate Professor -Climate Change Adaptation, Centre for Regional and Rural Futures, Deakin University, Burwood, Vic. 3125, Australia.
Abstract
The focus of this study is to develop an economic modelling framework for the coconut industry in Sri Lanka using the equilibrium displacement modelling approach. This is necessary for two main reasons. With the industry shifting from an export oriented industry to a domestic industry and coconut yield becoming highly variable due to climatic factors, a number of government interventions have been implemented according to market conditions. There are a few previous studies which have assessed the impact of these measures on individual industry sectors. However, there is no economic framework to undertake the assessment of various policies being used for the whole industry. In addition, the Sri Lankan coconut sector is likely to be significantly adversely effected by climate change and there are a number of possible adaptation options being considered, but again there is no framework to undertake an economic assessment of these options. In this study we develop and test an equilibrium displacement model of the Sri Lankan coconut industry that will then be available to analyse the economic impact of different climate and policy scenarios and the distribution of these impacts among the various stakeholders in the industry.
Key words: Equilibrium displacement model, value chain, coconut, Sri Lanka.
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