2013, Volume 10, Paper 3
A method to estimate the potential net benefits of trait improvements in pasture species: Transgenic white clover for livestock grazing systems
C.D. Lewis – Agriculture Research, Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Ellinbank, Vic. 3821, Australia, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic. 3010 and Australia. Dairy Futures Cooperative Research Centre, AgriBio, Bundoora, Vic. 3083, Australia.
B. Malcolm – Agriculture Research, Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Carlton, Vic. 3053, Australia and
Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic. 3010, Australia.
J.L. Jacobs – Agriculture Research, Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Warrnambool, Vic. 3280, Australia, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic. 3010, Australia and Dairy Futures Cooperative Research Centre, AgriBio, Bundoora, Vic. 3083, Australia.
G. Spangenberg – Biosciences Research, Department of Environment and Primary Industries, AgriBio, Bundoora, Vic. 3083, Australia,
School of Applied Systems Biology, La Trobe University, AgriBio, Bundoora, Vic. 3083, Australia and Dairy Futures Cooperative Research Centre, AgriBio, Bundoora, Vic. 3083, Australia.
K.F. Smith – Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic. 3010, Australia and Dairy Futures Cooperative Research Centre, AgriBio, Bundoora, Vic. 3083, Australia.
Email: claire.lewis@dpi.vic.gov.au
Abstract
The potential net benefits of pasture species with enhanced genetic potential can be estimated using the acquisition value technique. This method values potential extra production of pasture dry matter (DM) as being equivalent to the market value of alternative sources of equivalent metabolisable energy (ME) and crude protein (CP). The market price of equivalent alternative sources of ME and CP gives an estimate of the maximum potential value of extra pasture DM produced on farm. In the work reported in this paper the improvement of two traits in white clover (Trifolium repens L.) are valued using the acquisition value technique. The traits are 1) alfalfa mosaic virus resistance (AMV Res.), and, 2) summer survival through delayed leaf senescence (SS). One hectare of pasture from two different environments in southern Australia was considered. Discounted cash flow budgeting was used to estimate the extra potential annual benefits minus the extra potential annual costs from growing a novel white clover compared to an existing common white clover cultivar over a 10 year period. Net present value (NPV) of the additional ME and CP was estimated using a real discount rate of 10% p.a. Probability distributions were developed and stochastic simulation was used to incorporate the effects of uncertain variables on the value of extra DM produced. Sensitivity testing of key parameters was conducted. The analysis presented here indicates there are potential net benefits from the genetic innovations, and these net benefits would be shared between suppliers and users. For the ‘what if’ scenarios explored, combining individual plant traits into a trait stack showed greater annual net benefit than individual trait improvements in white clover. For example, the ‘AMV Res.’ as a single trait improvement returned a mean annuity value of approximately $170/ha/yr for the 10 year period, with 68% of annuities calculated falling within approximately $80 of this mean, for the single hectare analysis of the high rainfall (1000 mm) using the market value of ME and CP. Comparatively, the trait stack option returned a mean annuity value of additional annual ME and CP of approximately $540/ha/yr for the 10 year period with a standard deviation of $275. Economic models applied to molecular breeding programs can produce information to help inform decisions on prioritisation of research and investment in new traits, and assists in determining the magnitude of improvements in trait efficiencies that is required to justify such investment. The approach presented here, based on the acquisition value technique to value extra annual DM from a hectare of pasture, represents an initial look at the question; such partial estimates are not the potential net benefits from trait improvements in pasture species that would occur at whole farm level, within years and over time. For this information, analysis at the whole farm scale is required to capture the impact on the complexity of the farm system from changes to the pasture base, as the next phase of this research will explore.
Keywords: forage, economics, genetic modification.
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