2023, Volume 20, Paper 3
ISSN: 1449-7875
Evaluation of the least cost option to manage pastures in a wet winter in south-eastern Australia
Michael Young – School of Agriculture and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Perth; Institute of Agriculture, The University of Western Australia, Perth
John Young – Farming Systems Analysis Service, Kentdale
Ross S. Kingwell – School of Agriculture and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Perth; Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre, South Perth; Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Western Australia, South Perth
Philip E. Vercoe – School of Agriculture and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Perth; Institute of Agriculture, The University of Western Australia, Perth
Abstract
Farm management occurs against a backdrop of weather-year variation. In Australian mixed enterprise farming systems, how important is it for farm optimisation models to capture this variation and the management tactics matched to that variation? This study compares two whole farm optimisation models of an Australian mixed enterprise farming system. One model represents weather-year variation and the short-term tactical management responses tailored to the unfolding weather-year conditions. The other model is a traditional deterministic steady state model that employs the key assumption that every year is an expected weather-year. Both models require the farm manager to select a profit-maximising suite of enterprises and activities relevant to either the expected weather-year or the suite of weather-years that typify weather-year variation where the farm is located. Comparison of the models’ results reveals key differences in farm strategy, farm tactics and farm profit. The model that includes tactics aligned to the weather-year variation reveals that tactical decision-making increases expected farm profit by about 18 per cent.
Key words: Risk modelling, discrete stochastic programming, farming systems, farm management tactics, Australian Farm Optimisation Model
Download full document here
