Archive for the ‘Higher Education’ category

Customer (student) Analytics

September 29th, 2009

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Michael Gibson provides us with his own interesting twist on Customer Analytics in another of our Guest Posts from Australian Universities (you can read all previous guest posts here)

Michael is Data Warehouse Manager at Deakin University in Victoria, Australia.

Last week I attended a 2 day Customer Analytics seminar up the road in Melbourne where one of our academics was presenting.  The free tickets were offered to me because my responsibility in BI seemed to be a close match (and because I suspect they needed to fill a few vacant seats).  While we don’t do anything directly in this space at Deakin, I still wanted to attend because I have used BI to do some of this stuff in the past, I have a background in marketing, and I’m always looking to learn new things and expand my horizons.

While some of the presentations were only partly relevant or simplistic, there were a couple that caused me to think about how the concepts could be applied in Higher Education – and I have to say that some of the ideas match quite closely to some important issues previously identified by Universities.

Customer Analytics (sometimes called Customer Insights) is a relatively new discipline that seeks to understand customer behaviour by analysing primary and secondary sources of data in order to predict future behaviour (an established practice we might know as Predictive Analytics).

People automatically assume this is used by the private sector to work out how to extract more money from our pockets, but this is only partially true.  Organisations also use this technology to improve social outcomes and drive greater operational efficiencies.  Some examples were given by a few government departments (inlc. the ATO).

You’d be surprised at how many (usually large) organisations are doing this currently.  The Insurance industry is going crazy over this stuff at the moment, partially to understand how high they can set your premiums before you decide to leave them (which they like to call pricing optimisation).

What does this mean for Higher Ed?  Well, by creating a ‘Student Insights’ function and better understanding students, universities can realistically achieve some of the goals they always seem to be banging on about, including;

  • Lowering attrition rates
  • Increasing academic performance of students
  • Better targeted courses and units
  • Better employment outcomes
  • Delivering better services to students
  • Process improvement / operational efficiencies
  • Converting enquiries into enrolments
  • Attracting desirable students through more effective marketing

Some Unis already dedicate some time to better understanding students to achieve the above, but I doubt it is done using these sorts of sophisticated techniques (I’d be happy to hear of, or from anyone who does).

The statistics presented on the benefits obtained by using such techniques is very compelling, just as BI itself usually mounts a strong business case, so too does customer analytics – but only if the organisation truly sees the potential value and can drive the initiative well. An organisation really needs to be customer centric to make this work.

There is obviously a large degree of commonality with the aims of BI, and a strong BI capability is necessary to do this well.

I imagine there’d be several areas within Universities interested in this type of capability (and not just the marketing folks), but I suspect it will be some time before we see anyone doing this well.

Several institutions in the US have used this type of capability to great effect, improving the quality and quantity of their applications, increasing student grades and lowering attrition – and increasing donations form alumni of course.

Michael Gibson
Data Warehouse Manager
Deakin University

Who reads this stuff?

September 8th, 2009

It is a question I ask myself quite a lot.  In fact, I’m constantly surprised by the volume of traffic considering how inconsistent my postings are and the assumed relatively niche audience that exists for this kind of thing.

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So, thanks to Google Analytics, here’s where you wonderful Australasian readers have been reading from.  I’ve only got this level of insight since mid-April this year but it shows that we have visits from 38 cities on our continent in that time andaround 35 visits a day or around 190 a week.  I haven’t taken the trouble to plot where our 40-odd universities are but I suspect they are pretty well represented.  Is your university town not on here?

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Load Forecasting at AAIR

August 28th, 2009

The AAIR Load Management Special Interest Group met for the first time at QUT Gardens Point Campus in Brisbane this week.  The turnout was, I think, beyond the expectation of most people with great attendance from universities on both sides of the Tasman.  Organised by Jeff Holmes of QUT, this will no doubt become a regular event.

The stories on how load is managed in New Zealand were both revealing and alarming for me - imagine a scenario where you were obliged to enrol students irrespective of their prior education achievement yet were still expected to manage your load within a capped model.  What was also fascinating is the range of methods and approaches adopted by various institutions to both forecast and monitor load throughout the year.  Furthermore there is variance in terms of where this function is located in each organisation including Planning, Statistics, Finance, IT and the Vice-Chancellor’s office.

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What I’ve taken away from this and the first day of the AAIR Data Warehousing Special Interest Group where I caught a great presentation from Griffith (and missed what I understand was an equally great one from QUT), is that load forecasting is a bit of a black art. If load is only forecast at a high level then the ’swings and roundabouts’ approach tends to iron out things that are gaining and losing in popularity and forecasts can be expected to be within 1%, but the real art is in being able to provide a forecast down to award level.  Not everyone is doing this.

Load Forecasting at the highest level of an organisation needs to be a process that considers the following:

  • Historical data, particularly with respect to trends in certain disciplines or courses
  • Environmental data - economic situation, incentives to study certain disciplines
  • Continuing Students - treating these separately using history to determine rates
  • Commencing Students - here there is more variance in terms of enrolled courses
  • Faculty and School opinion - use the local subject matter expertise to inform and refine estimates

I think this latter point is the most significant and this is supported by opinion at other institutions which have devolved forecasting (or at least sanity checking) in place.  Having pondered on this a little bit, I think the following additional considerations would be worthwhile when delivering forecasts at the award level:

  • Provide a confidence level along with the award forecast
  • Revise the forecast continually based on current actual load
  • Retain the original forecast to assist in process improvements
  • Investigate correlations between admission and enrolment data for commencing students
  • Investigate correlations for other leading indicators such as level of interest in awards

I’m sure there are many more things to consider as no doubt I will discover as I quietly embark on yet another BI/DW voyage of discovery - more as it happens…

Heading North

August 24th, 2009

I’m really looking forward to a trip into sunny Queensland for two University special interest groups this week.

On Wednesday I’m dropping into QUT for the Load Management SIG which I understand has attendees from 21 Australasian universities.  I haven’t been to one of these but I’m really keen to understand more about how load reporting is handled at various institutions.

Then on Thursday and Friday its the 4th Annual Higher Education Data Warehousing Forum at Griffith’s Nathan Campus (just down the road from QUT).  I’m presenting something on Agile development which should be fun and I see there are also presentations scheduled from QUT, Griffith, Wollongong, UTS, UNSW and Deakin so hopefully we’ll all learn a lot from each other as a result.

Watch out for lots of SIG-inspired posts soon…

Underwater Internet

August 22nd, 2009

An interesting series of charts in the New Scientist show just how much Internet traffic flows around under water.

In 1956, North America was connected to Europe by an undersea cable called TAT-1. It was the world’s first submarine telephone system, although telegraph cables had crossed for the ocean for a century.

Trans-Atlantic cable capacity soared over the next 50 years, reaching nearly 10 Tbps in 2008.

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It is interesting to see the entry points to Australia are primarily via the West Coast of the US and Japan.  Is our geographical isolation affecting Internet performance at all?  Does this compromise our ability to market education around the globe - particularly online vodcasts etc?  I know we have a major corporate application that is hosted in the US and the performance is OK, but not exactly snappy.

That 10Tbps in 2008 is a massive amount of data.  It seems only yesterday that I worked for Telco’s in Europe where 2Mbps channels were something only the big corporations could afford to have.  How times have changed.