Archive for December 22nd, 2008

New discoveries linking periodic changes in the Sun’s magnetic field with global weather patterns could enable scientists to gain a clearer understanding of how additional factors – such as greenhouse gases – contribute to those weather patterns.

A newly-published paper by the University of New England’s Dr Robert Baker establishes the connection between solar cycles and the weather by correlating sunspot activity and rainfall figures for south-eastern Australia over the past 130 years.

Cycles of sunspot activity are a visible indication of the periodic changes in magnetic forces within the Sun. The most well-known sunspot cycle is the 11-year “Schwab” cycle, which comprises alternating five-and-a-half-year periods of relatively high and low sunspot activity.

Dr Baker’s paper, “Exploratory analysis of similarities in solar cycle magnetic phases with Southern Oscillation Index fluctuations in Eastern Australia” (Geographical Research, December 2008), shows that periods of increased sunspot activity are consistently associated with those periods of high rainfall in south-eastern Australia predicted by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Periods of drought, such as that which has afflicted Australia for the past six years, are associated with minimal sunspot activity.

Dr Baker (pictured here) is an Associate Professor in UNE’s School of Behavioural, Cognitive and Social Sciences. His paper compares sunspot / weather patterns in all 23 of the documented “Schwab” cycles, noting particularly the similarity between Cycle 15 (1914-1924) and the current Cycle 23. “Such comparisons between the current cycle and past cycles have important implications for both weather prediction and the monitoring of climate change,” Dr Baker said. “They could not only allow us to forecast farther into the future, but – through analysing differences in weather patterns between the current cycle and a past cycle with similar sunspot activity – they could help us to isolate the effect of recent additions to the system such as greenhouse gases.”

“We have to benchmark the natural system (i.e., the Sun) before looking at additions to it (e.g. carbon dioxide),” he explained. “Comparing current data with those of a century ago can give us an idea of the added effect of greenhouse gases. But sticking your head in the sand and saying the Sun has no effect on climate change is a virtual denial of historical reality.”

“I’m not a ‘climate-change sceptic’,” he added. “But although carbon dioxide could be a major contributor to global warming, it’s just one part of a complex system.” That system is so complex, he said, that the short-term temperature trend in the Southern Hemisphere (since 2002) is actually down rather than up.

Dr Baker is keeping a keen eye on daily reports of solar activity. “The Sun isn’t powering up,” he said. “The period of minimum sunspots signalling the completion of Cycle 23, although due to end in October 2007, is continuing. We could, in fact, be entering a prolonged period of minimal sunspot activity such as the one that brought the ‘Federation droughts’ around the turn of the twentieth century and a dip in global temperatures for a decade.”

The role of Australian local government is expanding because that of State governments is contracting, according to a new book co-edited by a University of New England academic.

Professor Brian Dollery (pictured here), the Director of UNE’s Centre for Local Government, is a widely published authority on Australian local government finance and reform.

His new book, Local Government Reform: A Comparative Analysis of Advanced Anglo-American Countries (Edward Elgar, 2008), looks at local government change over the past 20 years in Australia, New Zealand, Britain, Ireland, the United States and Canada.

‘Issues in Australia, such as the constant withdrawing of services from regional areas by State governments – especially NSW – and the controversial theme of local government amalgamations, are explored and then compared to the other countries,’ Professor Dollery said.

‘A good deal of light can be shed on the principles of local government reform by looking at changes in countries with much in common,’ he explained. ‘The next step will be to broaden this comparative approach by including developed countries outside of the “Anglosphere” group.’

The book, which Professor Dollery co-edited with Professor Joseph Garcea from the University of Saskatchewan and Professor Edward Lesage from the University of Alberta (both in Canada), also works through five ‘pillars’ of municipal reform: structural, functional, financial, jurisdictional and organisational/managerial.

‘Until now my books have explored two main themes,’ Professor Dollery said. ‘On the one hand they have focused on Australian local government; on the other, I’ve tried to develop theoretical principles for the analysis of local government reform. This new book represents a new direction in the research program.’

This is the UNE academic’s seventh book on local government. His previous books include The Political Economy of Local Government (Edward Elgar, 2001) and Reform and Leadership in the Public Sector (Edward Elgar, 2007), both written in collaboration with Professor Joe Wallis from the American University of Sharjah.

Other works include Reshaping Australian Local Government (UNSW Press, 2003), co-edited with the UNE’s Associate Professor Neil Marshall and Professor Andrew Worthington from Griffith University, which has recently been translated into Mandarin and published by Peking University Press.

‘Interest in this book arose in China mainly as a consequence of two papers I gave in Beijing in 2006 that focused on reform in Australian local government and lessons that could be learnt for municipal reform in China,’ Professor Dollery said.

Another of the leading international authorities who have collaborated with Professor Dollery is Fabio Fiorillo, Professor of Public Economics at the Università Politecnica delle Marche in Ancona, Italy. Professor Fiorillo, who has published widely in the area of local public finance, fiscal federalism and taxation, has contributed three co-authored chapters to one of Professor Dollery’s latest books, The Theory and Practice of Local Government Reform, co-edited with Professor Lorenzo Robotti of the Università Politecnica delle Marche and published this month by Edward Elgar Publishers.

Professor Fiorillo visited UNE last month for discussions with Professor Dollery and the Deputy Director of the Centre for Local Government, Bligh Grant – discussions that were a part of ongoing collaboration between Professor Fiorillo’s research group in Italy and the UNE Centre.

The University of New England is encouraging the study of statistics in schools through its involvement in organising and judging the Australian Statistics Poster Competition.

This national competition, coordinated by the Australian Mathematics Trust (AMT), aims to increase secondary students’ awareness of the importance of statistics in society, and to improve their statistical skills. Working in teams of two or three, students tackle a statistical problem – presenting their methods of data collection, and the results of analysing the data, in a clearly understandable and attractively designed poster.

The national winner this year was a poster titled “Eye Spy”, analysing age differences in the way people see the “ambiguous image” kind of optical illusion.

“Statistics is critical to a number of school subjects,” said one of the NSW coordinators of the competition, Dr Chris Reading from UNE’s School of Education. “Although the basics of statistics are taught in NSW high schools, this is insufficient to enable the students to really think statistically. Giving them the opportunity to develop a poster helps them to do this.”

Dr Reading (pictured here) and the other NSW coordinator, Jackie Reid from UNE’s School of Science and Technology, were among the judges of the NSW entries in this year’s competition (as they were in the two previous years). They are also involved in judging on the national level. In commenting on this year’s entries Dr Reading said the overall presentation of the posters was good (while leaving scope for even more creativity), and the graphical representations of the data analysis were accurate. “One area for improvement next year would be in the descriptions of methods used for collecting the data,” she added.

The winning poster nationally – “Eye Spy” – was from NSW. Its compilers – Andrew Loizou, Marcus Jones and Hayden Dimitrouski – are in Year 9 at Sylvania High School. The winning poster within NSW was also compiled by Year 9 students from Sylvania High: Alana Gazy and Kayla Madonis. Their poster, titled “Do different conditions affect the browning of cut fruits?”, analyses rates of browning under a range of conditions including refrigeration and covering with lemon juice.

Four other NSW posters were highly commended, including one from New England Girls’ School in Armidale.

One of the aims of the AMT in coordinating the competition is to increase students’ awareness of career options offered by statistics. More information on the competition can be found at:
http://www.amt.edu.au/aspcnews01.html.

THE PHOTOGRAPH of Dr Chris Reading displayed here expands to show her and Jackie Reid with the winning poster.